OK, now we're worried about the bird flu

Shanghaiist rarely hears about avian influenza -- the "bird flu" -- from anyone in China. It's always relatives and friends back in the United States worrying about something, whether it be unhygienic restaurants, bad healthcare, government spooks, or just crossing the street. And they always blow things out of proportion. Things are never as big and bad as the sensationalistic Western media would have us believe -- well, OK, once -- so when they keep bringing up this bird flu business, we just blow them off: "Oh, they're just trying to sell newspapers. And besides, the bird flu is down in southern China. We don't have anything to worry about in Shanghai."

Oh yeah? Read this Washington Post story and you'll be reaching for the nearest bottle of oseltamivir. Only problem is hardly any of that drug exists -- and it's the only one that works against the bird flu. So what? It's only down in southern China and Southeast Asia, right? Doesn't matter. Public health officials say an influenza pandemic is "inevitable" and the "world lacks the medical weapons to fight the disease effectively":

If the virus were to start spreading in the next year, the world would have only a relative handful of doses of an experimental vaccine to defend against a disease that, history shows, could potentially kill millions. If the vaccine proved effective and every flu vaccine factory in the world started making it, the first doses would not be ready for four months. By then, the pathogen would probably be on every continent.

Theoretically, antiviral drugs could slow an outbreak and buy time. The problem is only one licensed drug, oseltamivir, appears to work against bird flu. At the moment, there is not enough stockpiled for widespread use. Nor is there a plan to deploy the small amount that exists in ways that would have the best chance of slowing the disease.

The public, conditioned to believe in the power of modern medicine, has heard little of how poorly prepared the world is to confront a flu pandemic, which is an epidemic that strikes several continents simultaneously and infects a substantial portion of the population.