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The latest projection from the World Bank's Beijing office has some bad news: China's GDP growth may slow down to 7.5% in 2009, the lowest in 19 years. Given China's position as the world's manufacturing powerhouse and weakness in the global economy, net export growth is set to slow down from 11% this year to 3.5% next year. With overall imports substantially outpacing exports, this would be the "first time in many years that net external trade has made a negative contribution to growth". [Reuters]
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Someone learned said a while ago, that China's boom/bust line would be at 7% growth.
"Someone learned said a while ago, that China's boom/bust line would be at 7% growth."
I think it is important to note that the boom/bust line you are referring to is an artificial construction. The idea that China needs to maintain 7 percent growth to avoid social instability is a tool for those who are addicted to super-fast growth. Indeed, there is quite a bit of uncentralised instability now, when growth is around 9 percent. Is the regime threatened? No.
This is not to say that instability won't rise much further as growth falls and unemployment rises. But nothing bad will happen by itself if growth ever dips under 7 percent.