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Studies project 24 million Chinese single men in 2020, but is that really bad news?

marriagechina.jpg Trying to figure out how China will deal with its millions of single men and how it will finally convince its rural populations that girls aren't that bad a choice will always be very interesting to us. But a recent resurgence in the gender gap discussion has got us scratching our heads. Why exactly is the figure of 24 million single men only a bad thing?

According to a recent Chinese news piece, a Chinese Academy of Social Science study found that 24 million men may fail to find a spouse in 2020. The news has now been parroted by at least 100 other publications, which tut tut our future "nation of bachelors" while going into some of the societal implications this gender gap will have.

For instance, the BBC highlighted that "the growing imbalance means that forced prostitution and human trafficking has become "rampant" in some parts of the country, according to the researchers." While The Times Online pointed out that "The surplus of bachelors — known as “bare branches” — in the rural areas has been described by senior officials as a problem that could lead to a surge in crime and social instability."

That's all very possible and we agree with it, but if "24 million" really is the new figure for the amount of projected single guys in China's future, then isn't this piece of news actually good? Just last April, studies asserted that China had 32 million more boys than girls under the age of 20.

The study back then by the British Medical Journal said that China can expect to see "very high and steadily worsening sex ratios in the reproductive age group over the next two decades," and caused us to dismally conclude that there was "no bridge in site" to this ever increasing chasm.

That means that in the span of just nine months, the projected mass of bachelors has already shrunk by 8 million dudes. While there's always the possibility that one of the studies is way off, we're hoping what this disparity really means is that various government initiatives around the nation to enhance education, offer subsidies and training for girls are actually working. The Times article mentioned that the gender imbalance had begun to slow in late 2006.

Is 24 million bachelors still a huge problem? Yes. Is the continual tragedy of aborting fetuses because they're female disgusting and frustrating? Of course. But isn't the happy disappearance of 8 million future men worth investigating as much as how the one child policy contributed to this problem in the first place?

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Comments [rss]

  • yu888

    ^ except that they too have a gender bias and that they are full fledged chinese citizens as far as this study goes, they are likely included in the statistics already

  • larboard

    No problem. China has 55 minority group in the nation to fill the gap. They are free from the one child policy restriction except for the Hans. Alternatively, there are plenty of mail order brides around the world where one can pick from. Why worry.

  • nanheyangrouchuan

    And Tibetan and Uyghur women are just lining up to marry their Han-job oppressors, the same guys who beat, kill and discriminate against their male family members.

  • xiaochensu

    come to think of it, if females are so much more valuable now, wouldn't the parents of girls be able to squeeze a lot more benefits (both financial and otherwise) out of potential husbands' families? wouldn't this be an incentive for more parents to have female babies over time? or are people too narrow-sighted to see in such a market-oriented fashion?

  • nanheyangrouchuan

    If the female's family has some money and power, they can. But in most cases, the family is poor and is bullied into giving up their daughter to the scumbag son of a scumbag local official.

  • Kenneth Tan

    There aren't enough gay expats to go around for the lonely peasant men.



    I say it's time for Li Yinhe to make her 4th attempt in getting the NPC to legalise gay marriage. Someone else should submit another proposal to legalise polyandry.

  • nanheyangrouchuan

    China is fudging its demographic disaster and Shaun Rein and Thomas Friedman will stumble over each other to fall in line to support the CCPee.



    How are those lonely peasant men's chances with the gay expat population Ken?

  • 齐漠

    Unfortunately, it was a terrible party bus accident. Six million guys wanted to have a good night, but the bus fell off a cliff. Drinking and driving do not mix.

  • Kenneth Tan

    It was a very authoritative Xinhua report that told us back in Jan 2007 that there would be 30 million very lonely men by 2020:

    http://shanghaiist.com/2007/01/22/30_million_lone.php



    How did this figure shrink to 24 million? Did 6 million baby girls pop out of nowhere or have 6 million guys already committed suicide?

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